If you’re like me, and about 20 million others, you play Fantasy
Football (FFB). If you haven’t given it a shot yet, I strongly
recommend it. It’s fun, easy to jump into and can be profitable, too.
But before you start eyeing mock drafts and depth charts for the 2010
NFL rosters, understand that to become a FFB champion, you need skill,
a strong understanding of team’s tendencies, but most importantly, you
need a lot of luck.
If you’ve never been in a league, the idea is simple: you hold a draft and pick the
players that you think will perform at a high level and sit back and see how things
play out. If the roster you assemble lives up to expectations, you’ll likely have
a good season and end up thinking FFB is the best guilty pleasure created since the
boys from Bristol (ESPN) came on air in 1979. If the players you select underachieve
or get injured, you’ll likely never sniff the playoffs (or the money awarded to the
top teams) but at least you’ll understand the same helpless feeling that 20 NFL coaches
endure every year. It will also provide you with a slew of excuses for finishing in
the basement of your league and allow you to start your preparation for the following
season immediately following Week 7 when you were officially eliminated from playoff
contention.
While I would put my knowledge of NFL football up against almost anybody, another
misconception of FFB is that knowledge of the game and its players will translate
into FFB success. That theory couldn’t be farther from the truth. As I said earlier,
luck is essential to any successful FFB campaign and if you don’t believe me, let
me provide an example.
In an effort to allow me to watch an ungodly amount of NFL action this season, I asked
my girlfriend and some of her friends if they wanted to join their first FFB league
along with some of our mutual guy friends who had previous FFB experience. In addition
to the quality bonding time we spent together each and every Sunday, the league afforded
us some extra chances to get together with our friends and do a little trash talking
while sweating out the action. I also figured that because nearly half of the members
of our 10-team league had never played before and the fact that I’ve been playing
almost 20 years, I would almost be guaranteed a spot in the playoffs and a hunk of
the cash. Call it beginner’s luck, call the newbies quick studies, or call it one
of the world’s greatest unsolved mysteries, but somehow my playoff spot and the prize
money I was planning to use on Xmas presents disappeared like Terrell Owens in Buffalo.
To help drive home my point that FFB is probably about 80 percent luck, the first-year
player who dominated our league for most of the season didn’t realize her team was
atop the standings until she was informed of her good fortune by another player in
Week 12. This same player never checked the live scoring on the website, opting to
wait until each Tuesday or Wednesday to see how she fared that week. Meanwhile, I
was monitoring my player’s actions from sun up to sun down. Then, come Sundays, I
would check up on my player’s like an over-bearing parent who just allowed their teenager
to attend a co-ed slumber party.
I mean come on, shouldn’t time, effort and knowledge be rewarded? Shouldn’t those
who work the hardest eventually reap the rewards of those efforts? Apparently the
FFB Gods don’t think so or I’d be winning all three leagues and as you can likely
tell by the tone of this post, that’s not the case.
Another playoff-contending team owner selected her players using the same criteria
that People magazine uses to produce its 100 Most Beautiful People issue. Another
playoff team picked players based in her home town of Green Bay because she wasn’t
familiar with Peyton Manning’s work but had seen some highlights of Packers QB Aaron
Rodgers on the local news. She used a Top-200 players sheet to help her get through
the draft and whenever she was torn between picking players, her final decision was
ultimately made using the “which guy is hotter” formula.
Ultimately, our “Fantasy Virgins” League produced a playoff field that consisted of
one guy owner with FFB experience and three ladies who used to think Fantasy Football
meant winning a Dream Date with Jets QB Mark Sanchez.
Maybe the dozens of hours I studied player stats and team tendencies for my drafts
was overkill. Maybe the countless Internet searches I did to fill my nugget with what
I thought was vital information wasn’t necessary. Maybe I haven’t learn one helpful
piece of information over the course of the 16 previous years I played FFB. Maybe
the 35 years of closely following the NFL does me no good when it comes to FFB. Maybe
my whole approach of trying to draft the best players based on skill and past performance
was misguided.
Maybe next year I’ll get photos of all the players and pick my squad based on who’s
easiest on the eyes. Not bloody likely. I will once again study until my eyes bleed
and go into my drafts well-prepared and informed and hope that justice is served.
Until then, I will begrudgingly say congrats to all of fantasy newcomers across the
country that fluked their way into the playoffs while those of who actually understand
the game are left writing bitter blog posts and looking forward to the start of next
season.
Continue reading about Fantasy Football: Skill or luck? »
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